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MiS Preprint Repository

We have decided to discontinue the publication of preprints on our preprint server as of 1 March 2024. The publication culture within mathematics has changed so much due to the rise of repositories such as ArXiV (www.arxiv.org) that we are encouraging all institute members to make their preprints available there. An institute's repository in its previous form is, therefore, unnecessary. The preprints published to date will remain available here, but we will not add any new preprints here.

MiS Preprint
54/2006

Stochastic Dynamics of Viral Transmission

Henry Tuckwell and Patrick Shipman

Abstract

Several factors influence whether an encounter between an individual infected with HIV and an uninfected individual will result in the successful transmission of the virus. These factors include the physical transfer of virus particles, the infection of CD4$^+$ T-cells, and the subsequent persistence of the HIV population in the new host. We are primarily concerned with the second stage. Using a simple mathematical model, we estimate the probability of infection and its time-dependence when a given number of virus particles are transmitted. We discuss the implications of our estimates for reducing the probability of HIV infection by the use of microbicides or post-exposure prophylaxis.

Received:
Jun 5, 2006
Published:
Jun 5, 2006
Keywords:
viral dynamics, stochastic processes

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Preprint
2006 Repository Open Access
Henry C. Tuckwell and Patrick Shipman

Stochastic dynamics of viral transmission