The growing number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the enormous scale of the pandemic pose immense challenges for society and science worldwide. As an international mathematical research institute, we wish to contribute to the discussion by providing a statistical analysis of the growth rates underlying this pandemic.
This regularly updated report is a cautionary analysis of statistical trends from reported case numbers. Instead of simply extrapolating current growth trends, we seek to identify general trends in the dynamics of the growth rate, in order to estimate when countries may hopefully make a transition from alarming growth to a saturated phase. This can support researchers and policy makers in judging the effectiveness of various social distancing measures undertaken in different countries. The data evaluation is performed by Luu Hoang Duc and Jürgen Jost from our dynamical systems group.
Luu Hoang Duc and Jürgen Jost will present their analysis in an online talk Comparative statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic on Wednesday (April 1, 2020) at 8pm. The talk will only be open to members of the institute, as well as friends & partners. The invitation link will be send out on Wednesday evening and there will be limited time for selected questions.
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