The Stochastic Parametric Mechanism for Generation of Surface Water Waves by Wind

Synoptic scale eddy variance and associated fluxes of heat and momentum in mid-latitude jets are sensitive to small alterations in mean jet velocity, dissipation, and static stability. In this lecture the sensitivity of variance and fluxes to such structured changes in the mean jet is examined. In particular the structured change in the jet producing the greatest change in disturbance variance or flux is obtained. The method used builds on previous work in which storm track statistics were obtained using a stochastic model of jet turbulence. This work extends generalized stability theory from addressing stability of deterministic forecast to addressing stability in the context of statistical forecast.