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Events
Decision-Making in a World of Incomplete and Evolving Knowledge

MPI für Mathematik in den Naturwissenschaften Leipzig

G3 10 (Lecture hall)

conference

22/01/2014 24/01/2014

Decision-Making in a World of Incomplete and Evolving Knowledge

Speakers

David Aikman

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, USA

Daria Arkhipova

Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Italy

Nils Bertschinger

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Jordi Brandts

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain

Jennifer Castle

Oxford University, United Kingdom

Felipe A. Csaszar

University of Michigan, USA

Timo Ehrig

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Andreas Glöckner

Max Planck Institute for Collective Goods, Germany

David Hendry

University of Oxford, United Kingdom

Marc Jekel

Max Planck Institute for Collective Goods, Germany

Jürgen Jost

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Alihan Kabalak

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Sujit Kapadia

Bank of England, United Kingdom

Konstantinos Katsikopoulos

Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Germany

Thorbjørn Knudsen

University of Southern Denmark, Denmark

Rosemarie Nagel

Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain

Carsten Nielsen

University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Paul Ormerod

Volterra Partners, United Kingdom

Markus Reitzig

University of Vienna, Austria

Michael Ryall

University of Toronto, Canada

Burkhard Schipper

University of California, USA

Jens Schmidt

Aalto University, Finland

Shyam Sunder

Yale School of Management, USA

Aris Syntetos

Cardiff Business School, United Kingdom

David Tuckett

University College London, United Kingdom

Fernando Velazquez-Quesada

Universidad de Sevilla, Spain

Massimo Warglien

Università Ca' Foscari, Italy

David Wuttke

EBS Business School, Germany

Program

09:30 - 09:45	Jürgen Jost (Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany) Opening
09:40 - 00:00	Morning session: Reflexive anticipation in coordination problems (theory of heuristics for strategic uncertainty): Chair: Rosemarie Nagel (see session abstract)
09:45 - 10:30	Jordi Brandts (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain) Coordination and ways to achieve it
10:30 - 11:15	Rosemarie Nagel (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain) The Keynsian Beauty Contest game and a bounded rational model, level K
11:15 - 11:45	Coffee & Tea
11:45 - 12:30	General discussion or talks by members of other groups: What is the general contribution of our work, how to modify or enlarge it or connect it to other social sciences.
12:30 - 14:00	Lunch buffet at the institute
14:00 - 15:20	The role of narratives in understanding decision-making under uncertainty
14:00 - 00:00	Afternoon session: Economic models, narratives and policy: Chair: David Aikman (see session abstract)
14:05 - 14:20	David Tuckett (University College London, London, United Kingdom) The role of narratives in understanding decision-making under uncertainty Slides
14:30 - 14:50	Paul Ormerod (Volterra Partners, London, United Kingdom) Macroeconomics and Narratives Slides
15:00 - 15:05	Timo Ehrig (Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany) tba
15:10 - 15:15	Discussion
15:20 - 16:35	Economic modelling and forecasting in the face of structural breaks: Presentations by David Hendry and Jennifer Castle (60 mins); discussion (15 mins)
16:35 - 17:05	Coffee & Tea
17:05 - 17:45	Central bank policymaking under uncertainty: Presentation by Suijt Kapadia (25 mins); discussion (15 mins)
17:45 - 18:15	Panel discussion: David Hendry, David Tuckett, and Sujit Kapadia

08:55 - 00:00	Morning session: Games with unawareness (see session abstract)
09:00 - 09:25	Burkhard Schipper (University of California, Davis, USA) Epistemic models of unawareness This talk would provide a brief overview about epistemic model of unawareness starting with Kripke structures with awareness by Fagin and Halpern, continuing with unawareness structures by Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper, the generalized standard models by Modica and Rustichini, the product model by Li, Kripke models with awareness and propositional quantification by Halpern and Rego, and first-order model logic with awareness by Board and Chung. These structures will be discussed mainly graphically using an example and draw on a review by Schipper (2014).
09:25 - 10:10	Fernando Velazquez-Quesada (Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain) Logic of awareness change This talk would provide a brief overview about epistemic models with changing awareness. The author would start with Kripke models with awareness, continue with awareness bisimulation, and then discuss epistemic action models with awareness. Some of the material is based on van Ditmarsch, French, Velazquez Quesada and Wang (2013). Slides
10:10 - 10:35	Coffee & Tea
10:35 - 11:00	Burkhard Schipper (University of California, Davis, USA) Extensive-form games with unawareness The second part of the survey would focus on approaches to dynamic games with unawareness by Halpern and Rego (2013b), Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2013), Feinberg (2012), and Grant and Quiggin (2013). Again, all approaches will be compared using an example.
11:00 - 11:45	Alihan Kabalak (Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany) Epistemic logic for extensive-form games with unawareness The talk would introduce a dynamic epistemic logic for extensive-form games with unawareness. It allows the authors to model epistemic conditions on beliefs, awareness and rationality whose implications for the play are subsequently explored.
11:45 - 12:30	Carsten Nielsen (University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark) Simple unawareness in dynamic psychological games In standard games, players maximize preferences but preferences are usually defined over material outcomes only. Building on dynamic psychological games by Battigalli and Dufwenberg (2009) and dynamic games with unawareness by Heifetz, Meier, and Schipper (2013), the talk would introduce dynamic psychological games with unawareness in which preferences can also be defined over beliefs over others. Such an approach is useful to rationalize persistent and significant deviations from self-interested behavior (be- cause players may also care what others think about them). The talk is based on Nielsen and Sebald (2013).
12:30 - 13:00	General discussion (to be announced)
13:00 - 14:30	Lunch buffet at the institute
14:25 - 00:00	Afternoon session: New types of heuristics : Chair: Konstantinos Katsikopoulos
14:30 - 15:05	Panel discussion "What are the unmet research needs in managerial decision making?", part I: Participants: Markus Reitzig, Daria Arkhipova, Aris Syntetos, David Wuttke
15:05 - 15:25	Daria Arkhipova (Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy), Markus Reitzig Technology landscapes in systemic industries
15:25 - 15:45	David Wuttke (EBS Business School, Wiesbaden, Germany) Sourcing decisions under uncertainty This talk would provide a brief overview about epistemic models with changing awareness. The author would start with Kripke models with awareness, continue with awareness bisimulation, and then discuss epistemic action models with awareness. Some of the material is based on van Ditmarsch, French, Velazquez Quesada and Wang (2013). Slides
15:45 - 16:05	Aris Syntetos (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff, United Kingdom) Integrating statistics and intuition in supply-chain forecasting
16:05 - 16:35	Coffee & Tea
16:35 - 16:55	Konstantinos Katsikopoulos (Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany) Mathematics and story-telling in economic models
16:55 - 17:30	Panel discussions "What are the unmet research needs in managerial decision making", part II: Participants: Markus Reitzig, Daria Arkhipova, Aris Syntetos, David Wuttke, Rosemarie Nagel, Thorbjørn Knudsen
17:30 - 18:15	Shyam Sunder (Yale School of Management, New Haven, USA) Decision making, goal formation, and causality Slides
19:00 - 00:00	Dinner

09:25 - 00:00	Morning and early afternoon session: Richer models of complexity, cognition, and search: Chair: Jürgen Jost (see session abstract)
09:30 - 09:50	Michael Ryall (University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada) tba
09:50 - 10:00	Discussion
10:00 - 10:20	Felipe A. Csaszar (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA) The firm as a hypothesis of its environment
10:20 - 10:30	Discussion
10:30 - 10:50	Timo Ehrig (Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany) tba
10:50 - 11:00	Discussion
11:00 - 11:30	Coffee & Tea
11:30 - 12:00	Massimo Warglien (Università Ca' Foscari, Venezia, Italy), Jürgen Jost and Timo Ehrig tba
12:00 - 12:15	Discussion
12:15 - 12:45	Nils Bertschinger (Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany) tba
12:45 - 14:15	Lunch buffet at the institute
14:15 - 15:15	Jürgen Jost (Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany) tba
15:40 - 00:00	Late afternoon session: Coherence-based decision-making: when interpretations compete: Participants: Andreas Glöckner, Marc Jekel (see session abstract)
15:45 - 16:15	Andreas Glöckner (Max Planck Institute for Collective Goods, Bonn, Germany) Coherence-based decision making: model and review of findings
16:15 - 16:45	Marc Jekel (Max Planck Institute for Collective Goods, Bonn, Germany) Adaptation through learning in PCS networks
16:45 - 17:15	Panel discussion: Can coherence models be utilized to investigate the process of competition among narratives in committee decisions?
17:15 - 18:00	Massimo Warglien (Università Ca' Foscari, Venezia, Italy) General discussion and closing of the workshop

Participants

David Aikman

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, USA

Daria Arkhipova

Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Italy

Fatihcan Atay

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Nils Bertschinger

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Jordi Brandts

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain

Jennifer Castle

Oxford University, United Kingdom

Felipe A. Csaszar

University of Michigan, USA

Timo Ehrig

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Andreas Glöckner

Max Planck Institute for Collective Goods, Germany

Sascha Grehl

University of Leipzig, Germany

Jiao Gu

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

David Hendry

University of Oxford, United Kingdom

Leonhard Horstmeyer

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Marc Jekel

Max Planck Institute for Collective Goods, Germany

Jürgen Jost

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Alihan Kabalak

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Sujit Kapadia

Bank of England, United Kingdom

Konstantinos Katsikopoulos

Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Germany

Mark Kirstein

TU Dresden, Germany

Thorbjørn Knudsen

University of Southern Denmark, Denmark

Pierfrancesco La Mura

HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management, Germany

Robin Lamarche-Perrin

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Sheen S Levine

Columbia University, USA

Jiayu Li

University of Science and Technology of China, China

Robert Marx

TU Dresden, Germany

Rosemarie Nagel

Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain

Carsten Nielsen

University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Eckehard Olbrich

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Paul Ormerod

Volterra Partners, United Kingdom

Oliver Pfante

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Markus Reitzig

University of Vienna, Austria

Michael Ryall

University of Toronto, Canada

Burkhard Schipper

University of California, USA

Jens Schmidt

Aalto University, Finland

Shyam Sunder

Yale School of Management, USA

Aris Syntetos

Cardiff Business School, United Kingdom

Omri Tal

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

David Tuckett

University College London, United Kingdom

Andreas Tutic

Universität Leipzig, Germany

Fernando Velazquez-Quesada

Universidad de Sevilla, Spain

Massimo Warglien

Università Ca' Foscari, Italy

Frank Wusterhausen

Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany

David Wuttke

EBS Business School, Germany

Marius Emar Yamakou

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Odette Sylvia Yaptieu Djeungue

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany

Johannes Zschache

University of Leipzig, Germany

Scientific Organizers

Jürgen Jost

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences (Leipzig), Germany

Massimo Warglien

Università Ca' Foscari (Venezia), Italy

Timo Ehrig

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences (Leipzig), Germany

Administrative Contact

Antje Vandenberg

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences Contact via Mail